Poker News: Oneforthethumb is a bot

do you even play online poker? how the hell could you find that post boring?

That isn't to say someone can't program a bot that plays perfectly though. I have just never seen one that plays that well.

Look, we're just going to have to agree to disagree. I frankly think the evidence provided by Trebek is astounding. I think it would be a huge challenge to even find two players whose statistics are anything close to each other as the stats of those four players in question. Maybe I see the situation the way I do because I have played against those guys as much as I have and admittedly have been suspicious that something unusual was happening for a long time. So much so that I have jokingly accused them of being bots at the tables before (no responses from them of course). Heck, THIS VERY THREAD we are posting in started in November with a player thinking one of these guys was a bot. How times does this potential issue have to come across peoples radar before it legitimately should be looked into?

I don't think these guys helped themselves either by making posts early on in the 2+2 thread that included lies, and then changed their stories as the thread went on. You can't tell me something isn't at least a little fishy. I'm all for hearing them out and if good explanations are out there then great. My concern about your stance dumwaldo is that you just seem to be willing to overlook everything as though everybody else is full of it and there isn't a doubt in your mind that the whole operation is legit. Are you really that 100% convinced that nothing is wrong?

I guess if that's how it's going to be, let me ask you....what would YOU suggest Full Tilt do to prevent the usage of bots going forward. What kind of evidence would you need, and how would you go about getting it? Does the potential existence of bots just not concern you?

In response to your comment Spigwish, I can definitely confirm as a 1/2 NL player on Full Tilt, that for months on end, you COULD NOT sit at a table without playing against one of the "bots" in question. Between those four accounts, finding a table that did not include them was nearly impossible. I, like several others, jokingly asked these guys if they were bots at the tables. Specifically, I recall asking mariojr. Never a response. Then after months and months of play and tens of thousands of hands, the guy comes out of the blue and says something, just prior to his account being frozen for investigation.

I'm not making any final judgements here. All I know is there is an awful lot of very damning evidence presented against these guys, and it's concerning. The players in question were all barely above breakeven poker players. It was their volume of hands that earned them the big money. I can tell you that in tens of thousands of hands I was down only two buy ins to all four of them combined. But more important than the competition level, is the fact that these guys took up a seat at every single table available, and you had no choice but to play with them if you wanted to play full ring 1/2 NL. Obviously, that's one less seat available for the average poker player, and it made the competition just that much tougher to deal with these guys day in and day out. If there are legitimately 4 guys sitting there and playing an identical strategy, then fine. But knowing that all four were playing from the exact same location, there's just too much they could do that would be in violation of the terms & conditions without being detectable. And we'll probably never know for sure.

I'd at the very least like to see FT adjust the rules to disallow two accounts from playing at the same location. I have on rare occasions had friends who have played from my house before at completely separate tables, and would be more than willing to give that ability up to help ensure a level playing field for all. It would be a small price to pay.

While these guys in a best case scenario may have been within the rules, I think this situation brings to light the potential of much greater problems to come if others try to exploit loopholes in the system.

Maybe he is chat banned, or just doesn't read the text box.

Like what?

As best as I can tell there is no evidence at all.

There are some very explainable circumstances but nothing that would constitute evidence and certainly nothing so that could be called "damning evidence".

I posted this in duplicate, tried to delete but it won't let meLast edited by Gamboooool20 on Mon May 14, 2007 11:25 pm; edited 2 times in total

That is not true. The AHK scripts refered to in that thread are Automated Hot Key scripts. They are scripts that help them clicking when multitabling and are VERY common. They have nothing to do with making decisions.

The unethical individual that you should be watching out for is SukitTrebek that has admitted his statistics are incomplete to the point that they don't even account for 1/3 of these players play and that the rest of his 'evidence is "not conclusive proof" but he will just keep tossing stuff out there in the hopes it will stir up more crap for the player that beat him on the table.

you can find mariojr and all the other bots playing at 8 tables at a time by searching them in the player finder

THEN there are chill bots!

I wonder what you would think if you saw my buddy 16 tabling, lol.

Read the whole post.

Just... wow.

Hey, at least you have to give him credit for being honest and admitting it, lol. How funny is that?

Full Tilt Poker "legitimately" looked into this matter for a prolonged period of time. Did you forget the ONLY piece of damning evidence that exists because it does not support the 'bot theory'?

On one side there is an extensive investigation by the operators of the site that have every last spec of information possible for a third party to gather and they said it is insufficient to prove anything. Also on that same side is nlnut who offered a very reasonable and very consistent explination for the 'suspicious' activity.

On the other side is wild speculation and claims based on incomplete information and one guys inflated ego. They did not leave the table because SukitTrebek signed on. That makes no sense. why would they leave when a player that they felted the day before signs on? That is patently absurd and to even make such a dubious claim would take an ego the size of the 2+2 thread to do. This is typical of SukitTrebeks audacious ego from what I can see in that thread.

So bottom line, we don't agree to disagree. I agree with you. It should be looked into just as it WAS looked into quite extensively. I guess the part we don't agree upon is where I accept what was said by the ultimate deciding authority ion the matter and you choose to ignore it.

Seriously, think about it. You are blindly giving more trust to SukitTrebek than you are to FTP. He has admitted that his stats are incomplete and I think it is obvious the guy has an even bigger ego than me and thats pretty big. How do you know he didn't doctor his stats? Do you have poker tracker? Do you have stats on these guys that match his exactly? He has done NOTHING to show his own credibility and I do not recall seeing anybody ELSE posting corroborating stats. He is simply the figure head of an angry supportive mob that jumped behind him like lemmings. An angry mob with no recollection of the day before he posted when they trusted FTP and the moderators on their own forum.

Sheep are easy to lead. You might want to ask yourself if you are caught up in the herd.

If you think lying impeaches a posters credibility then why would you do it yourself as you have done in the above quoted paragraph? nlnut has NOT lied and if anything he has been incredibly forthcoming and has displayed a level of consistency in his story that is unmatched by ANYBODY on the opposing side of the discussion on 2+2.

See, you are lying because you know damn well that THEY did not lie. ONE OF THEM lied and his lies were about somewhat inconsequential information. BrandonJoseph74 did not lie to obfuscate the facts. He only lied about being one of the players because he felt intimidated by the 'witch hunting mob' that had quickly gathered and expressed great hostility. Though no lie is entirely excusable this is an understandable lie.

In contrast, the lie YOU told is gives the impression that nlnut was shown to be lying when that is not at all the case. This is a lie that is tailored SPECIFICALLY to obfuscate the facts. You want people to think everybody involved in the team is a liar. You did not tell the straight forward truth and you were purposely misleading in what you said. In my book thats a lie.

Well for starters, I don't think there is anything FTP can do to prevent the usage of bots and I don't think they should do anything to prevent bots. I think any anti-bot measures they could take as preventative precautions would inevitably end up hurting the legitimate players more. I would rather see the occasional bot get through on a regular basis than see one innocent player punished falsely.

What kind of evidence would I need? I would need ALL the evidence but as an outsider that is not going to happen so I will never be in the position to make any final determination on my own. I can only evaluate what information I have and use that to determine if the decision that FTP comes to is reasonable. In this case I think it is very reasonable to believe they are playing as a team and are not in any way bots.

I believe they are not bots because FTP says they are not bots but thats not to discount my own thought process. I also think they are not bots because many reasons.

1 - They chat! It is as simple as that. bots don't chat. plenty of people, including SukitTrebek, have come forward to say they have chatted with them.

2 - Inconsistent bet timing. If one of them takes 11 seconds to act this hand and they took 14 seconds to act last hand and it takes 12 seconds to act next hand a human brain will probably interpret that as all 3 hands taking the same amount of time to act. Despite some HIGHLY dubious claims in the 2+2 thread this type of random action is highly improbably in an automated bot unless it had gone though years of development and beta use. It is just an extra level of programing that I don't think would be a big enough priority to be included till late revisions. Nobody would go to the lengths to add a timing randomizer unless they had already been caught before because the consistent bet timing.

3 - They play from the same IP. I think it is safe to say that it is common knowledge that shared IP use is one of the biggest things online poker rooms watch for. Several accounts playing from the same IP is a 100% guaranteed red flag if you try to withdraw. Knowing this I would think someone would have to be about the stupidest person alive to believe a 'botter' would multi account from a single IP. Am I really supposed to believe that someone with enough knowledge to bot is not going to know how to use proxy servers? It's like the most basic element of ANY type of illicit online activity.

I think the fact that they did nothing to hide the fact that they were all playing from the same IP speaks VOLUMES for their willingness to be confronted with the allegation of wrongdoing. If they were doing something wrong, don't you think they would take the most basic step to hide it?

4 - I have a somewhat different outlook on stats than most people. 99.9% chance that humans could not have such statistical similarities probably would look damning to most people. Not to me. To me that means there is a tenth of a percent chance that humans CAN have this kind of statistical convergence. Only a 100% chance would prove that it is not possible for humans to have a tight statistical convergence. Anything less is proof that humans CAN do this.

The statistics do little to convince me of anything other than these guys are good at doing what they set out to do as a team. If I were a member of the team I would be proud that I can stick to the game plan so well and I would feel secure with my financial partners knowing that they too are sticking to the game plan.

5 - a moderator at 2+2 is standing up in support of them. Someone who knows the main player in question personally. He has been to his house, he has sat at his computers he is a moderator on the forum and I think his words deserve a bit of respect. I am sure he is not a moderator because he has demonstrated a propensity towards lying. I certainly believe nation much more than I believe the guy that claims he is from the area and heard from a guy that knows the guy and he is running an $8 per hour sweatshop.

Does the potential existence of bots worry me? Of course not. Video games are easy to master. A lot easier than live players. I would rather play at a table with 8 bots than 8 living, thinking, unpredictable players.

Wouldn't you?

peace,

dumwaldo

Official repsponse from PP on bots

Dear xxxxxxxx

We are aware of the several BOT Poker Programs in the market that are designed to allow a program to play poker. These programs run independently on a player's computer and so there is no foolproof method to detect and prevent their usage completely. They are designed to play poker as a human, therefore it is not possible to detect a BOT program through the game play.

Our principle aim has always been to provide a safe and fair gaming environment. On this we will not compromise.

We are committed to detect and prevent software programs such as these from playing on our site. Such programs are often designed to send information about cards or players to an external program.

We prohibit this practice at our site and will use all necessary methods.(including but not limited to, screen scraping or reading the list of currently running programs on a player's computer)

It should be noted that although BOTs are frowned upon because they are computer programs they actually play poker at a level that is considered below average to that of a human player.

NOTE: Your Account username and password are confidential information. No one from the company will ever ask for your password in a phone call or email. Do not respond to any requests that ask for your password.

Here is an interesting entry from "robopoker":

A massive thread at Two Plus Two regarding poker bots at Full Tilt Poker has exploded. You can read the 1,500+ replies, or see my summation below.

An observant human player (SukitTrebek) noticed some statistical similarities in the play of 1forthethumb, full_tilting, mariojr, and 0_Drunkenboxer. When I say similarities, I mean SIMILARITIES. Their stats on all streets are nearly identical over 100k hand samples each. This is a link to SukitTrebek's collected stats...decide for yourself.

SukitTrebek reports his findings to Full Tilt. The suspected bot players disappear, and Trebek assumes they are banned. 1 month later, the entire crew of accounts re-appears at the same time and returns to grinding more hands of $200NL than anyone else for 1.5bb/100.

Suspicious? Oh yes. You really shouldn't continue reading until you take a look at the stats

When the bots return, Trebek breaks his silence and the NL Bots on Full Tilt thread is born. Read Trebek's original post if for no other reason than to know what a player will go through to catch you. Full_tilter and a buddy chime in to profess their innocence, backed by Nation, a Two Plus Two forum moderator that claims to know them in person and "knows" they do not run bots.

What do I think? I can tell you right now that something fishy is going on with their stats. These guys have posted stats over 100k samples that are more similiar than any I've been able to find on ANY of my bots, and I'm admitting they are un-tilting, automatons. I've run bots for 1M hands with untouched logic code without 100k runs this similiar. If these guys are bots (or a sweatshop...there's no difference) then they are following a script, but one that is horribly static and has almost no regard for the texture of the board or styles of the opponents around them.

The only way I can see a bot with such similiar statistics is if they are using only the number of actions in the hand and their hand strength to make decisions. They obviously don't use the bet amount as a decision making tool as hand histories have been posted showing them folding to minimum bets and raises in a way that no sane player would.

In other words, folks, this is a horrible bot/script/sweatshop. There are so many factors of the game that they are obviously ignoring and they are still turning a considerable profit at $200NL, a game and limit that most ignorant human players thought was untouchable by bots. full_tilter and his crew have done it successfully and as you've seen from their stats, they are making some downright horrible plays. They are continuation betting 97% of the time at $200NL for example.

Well dumwaldo, at least you present a very well thought out argument. You're obviously an intelligent person and have have reviewed the case in detail. FWIW, twisting my statements into a lie is a bit of a stretch. Did I make a generalization....yes. I should've been more specific to Brandon when referring to lies and not nlnut. I don't have any proof that nlnut lied. We could go back and forth on the points you've made all day long, but I think generally speaking there are a few key points we differ on:

1) Definition of a bot. I think it is somewhat of a gray area. While everything may not have been be 100% automated, for the statistics to converge the way they did, it seems there would at least need to be some sort of "human bot" scenario where a program is prompting the players to make the exact same actions in the exact same scenarios every time. So in that case you could argue "not a bot" successfully, but the impact remains the same. I also can tell you that in an extensive # of hands with those guys, chat almost never occurred. Surely the account owner(s) could jump in and chat every now and then. However, more than 90% of the time somebody would try to talk to one of them directly, there was no response. Could this be explained by them perhaps having chat off or just having too many tables to be interested in chatting? Sure. But it's just another piece of the puzzle. Even I'm not going to sit here and tell you that there is absolute proof out there. It's the large number of pieces of the case that make their story hard to believe, in my opinion.

2) The statistics of SukitTrebek you believe to be incomplete. I still just don't see how. He doesn't have to have datamined every hand they played to present a case. Eventually a sample size is going to grow large enough to make valid statistical conclusions. Let's not forget that nlnut confirmed these stats. That would throw out any reasonable concern they were doctored by SukitTrebek.

3) The circumstances of how these guys were ultimately cleared of wrongdoing. Didn't Full Tilt say that the results of the investigation were inconclusive? That's not exactly a statement saying they were innocent, is it? That concerns me. I realize it doesn't concern you, because whether innocent or guilty, clearly the largest difference between your outlook on this situation and mine is...

4) ...I am concerned about the presence of bots, and you're not. I won't disagree that as of right now bots don't pose a major threat. If the players in question were bots, they weren't playing at any kind of extremely good win rate. They can be beaten by intelligent players. However, where we differ is that when you look at the big picture, if nothing is done about bots do you really think that down the road we won't have a major problem on our hands? If a robot can be created that can beat the greatest chess players in the world, what's to stop one from mastering NL holdem? We're not there yet, but don't you think it can happen down the road? If it does, and in large volume, online poker will never be the same. It'll just become another house game where the odds are always against the player.

BRING ON THE BOTS!

I'LL BEAT ANY BOT ANYDAY.

Bots really only work with lhe. The difference between being average and a winning LHE player is being able to get a feel for the table and pwning it. Bots can't do that, they are -ev.

Good bot.

but there are trap doors....

that you can't come back from.

No, all the 10-20 and 15-30 2+2'ers pretty much verified it. We'd have to do a search, I'm not good at the thread searches on forums, can never find what im looking for. It was like a week ago I read it, it was a big thread. I guess some of them have already been banned. But there is a big list of bots that a bunch of players want to send in to Party.

interesting link provided on this thread

i read the whole 46 pages and from what i see theese bots are pretty succsesfull

and it looks like a bigger problem than i had imagined

Also, this what Iggy, (the blogfather) had to say about the bots on FT situation:

"Wow. Just wow.

Massive, massive thread. Poker Bots. Cheating at poker. What else do you want?

I just finished the entire thread and am blown away.

They do have 3 people signed in. They have an automated script running dictating action on every street. The human then clicks the button.

This allows them to be exonerated by FTP for botting.

The statistics say it's a computer making a decision. The fact that they're able to fly under the radar says it's a human clicking the button.

Chuck can admit to everything here except the script running because it would violate the T&C."

Bots are very possible. I guess it has been made fact that several bots on 10-20 Party exist, and are beating the limit for over 1BB/100. If you think it is, I would email support. There really isn't a whole lot support can do though. Supposedly, some bots that were recently created can't be detected by the sites themselves.