Omaha High/Low Poker: any advice on this hand?

The quick odds rule of 2 and 4 works when the number of outs are under 12 pretty well. e.g. close.

13 and over the % are off on the high side 2-4% - so 17 outs with 2 cards to come is 17x4 = 68% but it really is 64% of making your hand with 17 outs.

If there are no redraws to the other player after the turn and you make your hand then you have 64% to win the hand.

On the turn if you still have 17 outs then the rule of 2 is 34% but it is really 38%.

So over 12 expect the rule to be off on the high side with 2 cards to come and on the low side with 2 cards to come.

Hope this helps.

I use the rough win % to caculate the pot odds and close is good enough.

This is an interesting thread...

The main thing you should learn from this discussion is that if you have a hand which is only a slight favourite (or a slight underdog), and you know your opponent will not fold, you might be better off not getting all the money in. A big part of your edge in these situations comes from being able to make your opponent fold a better hand.

A lot of the people who responded to the original post did so with the knowledge that the opponent in question had aces. But that's not how you should be thinking about the hand, in my opinion. Instead you should consider his possible range of hands given the action and assuming you don't know what his actual cards are - an overpair (very likely), a set, two pair, two overcards and a flush draw, a straight (very unlikely) etc. Then you average out your chances of beating all of these hands, weighted to the probability of him holding each one of them.

When you look at the hand this way, you'll find that on average you're only a slight favourite, and all you really accomplish by getting all your chips in is increasing your standard deviation.

As an aside, if you knew for certain he had aces, you would of course get all your money in knowing you were a significant favourite. But I don't think you can reasonably put somebody on such a specific hand under most circumstances.

I disagree with betting this hand after the flop. With a massive draw such as your hand I would have checked and let him lead the action. I also agree with just calling the re-raise.

Thanks for the advice. You are probably right. I went all with the hopes he would fold something like 10s or 9s. If I had known he had rockets I probably would have called, knowing he couldn't fold rockets.

Its a tough situation cause while your mathematicly the favorite, your still behind, and that really does affect what you do with the hand. I would have just called much quicker, cause i have learned that Clonies method only works for low number for calculating percent.

You are no where NEAR 80%, as my first guess, before i throw this thing into pokertracker.

If he has the A of clubs, you are 62%

If he doesnt have the ace of clubs you are 65%

Your no longer playing AA vs KK, your ahead, but now your playing A2 vs KQ.....not worth playin for 250 bucks. I might have called his 30 dollar reraise to see if i could hit it, but you would have needed to be prepared to pay big on the turn when u miss with the 2 of hearts or something. After a worthless turn, your down to 43-46% chance of winning, still pretty good, but again, not the spot u wanna be calling or raising 250 into.

Now, how to get the other players to expose all their money is a different issue. All you've decided at that point was that nothing would make you fold on the flop.

Option 1: check. You're hoping for a bet so you can check raise. But what happens if they both check and the turn misses your draws? Now you're only 30% to win against two opponents, which makes exposing all your chips much less attactive. Moreover, if both checked on the flop it is likely that one will fold to a bet on the turn. And you're odds against an overpair have dropped to 43%. Or, suppose you catch a club on the turn, and now are put to a decision whether or not the other guy did indeed have clubs, or whether one of the aces is a club, which would give him the nut flush draw. This option is good only if you're reasonably certain one of the other two will bet. All we know is we have a minimum raiser and a person who called from last position. These could mean monsters, these could mean drawing hands.

Option 2: bet. You run the risk of pushing weaker hands out of the pot. But weaker hands likely are not going to pay you off anyway. This way, if they are on good hands (i.e., AA) then you may see a re-raise. If you just get a call then you see another card, and the additional money in the pot improves your pot odds, so you can justify paying to see the river. You make a bet if you are not reasonably certain one of the other players will bet.

Unless I knew more about these players, I'd guess that checks around on the flop is a definite possibility because the original raiser is in middle position.

The only question then is how much to bet. I don't see any reason why an eight dollar bet is not within a reasonable range of bets. A smaller bet might show too much strength and a larger bet might push one of the other players out. And if someone does come over the top they are probably going to want to make a pot sized bet or more, which means that your reraise can be large and still very likely to get called or reraised. Indeed, this is exactly what happened, and exactly what I would have hoped would happen.

The odds discussed in my previous post are odds if you get all in on the flop, and they are sooooo good under the circumstances that I would be thrilled to get enough action to get all my chips in on the flop every time that situation arises. I don't want to be put to a decision on the turn if the turn misses me. And I don't want to risk hitting my draw and winning a tiny pot.

In sum, good bet, great action, unlucky draw.

The odds of your draw if neither of his aces is a club = 65.5% to win.

If one of the aces is a club = 61%.

If the button has two superior clubs (say kc and qc) then your odds drop to ~41% (they're actually slightly better if one of the other guy's aces is a club).

So, almost a 2 to 1 favorite against one opponent OR

you are a 3 to 2 dog against two opponents, which means you are:

2 to 1 favorite and getting better than 1 to 1 for your money OR

3 to 2 dog, but getting approximately 2 to 1 on your money.

I'll take either one of those scenarios for all of my cash in a ring game all day, every day.

yea, i think if he had 9s or 10s, he probably would've folded... at least you were able to put him on an overpair, nice read...

The way I look at it, you were almost a two to one favorite. I'll put my money in all day long when I'm a two to one favorite in a cash game. You played fine and got unlucky on the turn and river.

no draw is ever 80 percent to hit... not even in this situation...

22 vs. AhKh..

FLOP: Qh-Qd-Jh

AK has 20 outs i believe (did this off of the top of my head), and thats not close to 80 percent... i believe it's only a 60 percent favorite, but once again, its just off of the top of my head...

i think you played it pretty good... but if it were me, once he re-raised your re-raise, i would have just called in that spot... the reason i would have just called was b/c i know i'm behind in the hand, and i still have to hit one of my cards... if you just called there, you would have seen another card and saved yourself 250 to see that card... he most likely would have bet, and you might have been able to fold in this spot w/ only one more card to come...