No Limit/Pot Limit Strategy Discussion: Scenario 10 (Deep Stack Poker)

Ok. Let's continue.

You check the turn. He fires out a pot-size 39. You call. Pot is now $117 going to the river. Isn't this going against your desire to keep the pot small? With starting stacks at $200- $300, you are now playing at least 1/3 of your stack on an overpair with a scary board?

Now it's your turn to bet the river. Assume a blank coms off, like an offsuit 2. Do you bet $50 as a blocking bet? More? Less? What if he raises? Can you really fold at this point?

If you check the river and he fires out a pot sized $117, Fold now? If so, then why call the turn?

What if the river was NOT a blank -- say a 9 or a 7. Check/fold? Or do you bet into the new betting aggressor when the board has just become even worse?

I guess this goes back to knowing your opponent.

grunch:

I'm betting here enough to make a draw wrong for calling. Here's why, if we assume the villain is fairly tight for hand selection, we are going to be ahead of possible combinations roughly 70% of the time. I'll easily assume that if villain isn't paired by the turn that he easily could have a monster draw. Anything that villain has that I am beat by right now, I at least have outs to and I can consider that if need be (if I am reraised).

Going further, if villain has the capability of really playing any two as far as hand selection goes, we are ahead here over 80% of the time. Either way, this is a board that I want to play Qs on.

I tried to make it through this train of logic with JTs and I couldn't come up with a reasonable villain actually making a raise here.

However, if we can add any expectation to this happening, even like 5% of the time, that is great news for those of us willing to call river.

Gypsy, was this from High Stakes Poker? It seems very similar to a hand on there except Chan had KQs on the hand I'm thinking of. Called the flop with absolutely nothing then hit runner runner for the K-high straight and the flush.

That was going through my mind...I'll post the rest in a bit.

fmp

Depending on the opponent, I'd probably either try to make a bet that he was likely to interpret as a bluff or try to make a bet that looked like a blocking bet. Both bets have the advantage that they can make our opponent think his hand is good, while also keeping a bluff as an option for him in case his hand isn't good enough for a showdown. The advantage of the fake bluff is that you can probably make a bigger bet and still keep it credible. The advantage of a fake blocking bet is that he may think a smaller part of his range is likely to be good enough for a call, making him bluff-raise more often.

10J jumped out at me as a very likely holding. A flopped set is possible, but you should find out where you are at by betting $20-$25 here. If you are played back at, all signs point to fold. If your opponent has 10J he would be crazy to raise with the draw that he picked up.

I bet around 25 and see what happens. If my opponent plays back at me, I'd have to put him on a straight or some sort of two pair.

Checking is not an option IMO, for you will not only lose control of the hand, but you will lose your chance to significantly narrow your opponent's range of hands down.

The problem is that he won't always make the calls with a lot of those hands. Also, I really don't think you got that range right. This isn't limit, so calling with overcards is the exception rather than the rule, and he can call with a lot more hands before the flop. I think one of the hands to worry most about is As9s. None of the other make much sense. Raising with 77 there seems a bit awful since he's unlikely to get called by a worse hand, and the other hands you mentioned are basically pure floats on the flop. If he's raising for value this is an easy fold in my opinion, but river is probably the best scarecard in the deck. And I do think that QJ is definitely possible here, but not all that likely given the turn action.

Yeah, if he does bet we obviously won't be able to keep the pot small, but the same goes for us betting turn. The difference is that he can never make a bluff-raise to force us to fold or play for stacks, and he can also check behind with a lot of the one pair hands that we beat.

If he does check behind on the turn I probably make about a 1/2 pot value bet and hope to get called by a 9 or T, and I'd need a really good reason not to fold to a raise.

Because when he bets turn his range is a lot wider. There's a good chance that he makes that bet with any pair+draw combo intending to check behind unimproved. Once he bets the river he either has a better hand or he's bluffing, so we can just estimate how likely each case is and see if we're getting the odds to call.

I think the same can be said here, we have to estimate how likely he is to bluff and go from there. He's not betting a worse hand for value if a 9 or 7 hits.

Yup, especially when it comes to the bluffing frequencies.

As I said earlier, this is an easy fold if we know that he's raising for value IMO, but it's such a bluff-friendly board that I think we probably have to call because of that. Assuming that AQ will call turn seems like a bit of a stretch, even if he would've floated with that in the first place. There's also the ugly fact that we never win the pot if he's being honest with his raise, which cuts our equity down quite a bit. I think that both Ks9s and Qs9s are way more likely than AsKs btw. A lot of good players will take this line with those hands every time, but there are probably very few that will do the same with a whiffed AK more than a fairly small percentage of the time as a float.

Add to that the fact that AK is pretty likely to get reraised before the flop and I think that we see that hand rarely enough that it's close to insignificant. If villain isn't bluffing here, I think the only hands we can realistically expect to chop with are Q9 and QT, both of which will probably have to be suited to see the flop, and maybe QQ as well even if it doesn't seem all that likely.

After just noticing the board at the end of the hand - I check call. Here's why

#1. If you bet, the only hand he calls you with is the lower straight - or a split pot. Not much good coming from it. Also, you avoid a big pot because you don't want to fold your hand to a huge re raise on the river.

#2. You don't want to fold to an all in, and it looks like he could have a flush, so if you bet and get re raised, you don't know what to do and probably have to call. To avoid this huge pot, keep it small by check / calling.

#3. Betting out at it again says that you have the queen and it's an easy play for him to see and play accordingly. So, if you check, he bets and it's either:

a) Bluff

b) Flush

c) Q - Split opt

d) Lower straight

I'd say the chances of b) c) a) - All pro reasons for check calling are a lot higher than d). payoff seems greater by checking.

I think your trouble started on the flop. It's hard to tell where you stand when you only bet half the pot. I'd bet like $14-15. On the turn I would bet $30. This should let me know where I stand.

I fired in a 20ish something bet and got called. Now we have:

8 9 4 T J

Now I'm holding a straight, pot is 79, what do you do?

No, this isn't if we go check, check. This is as played in the HH.

A reasonable bet against most players would be in the neighborhood of the pot or smaller. I think a lot of rivers are ok here, even if there are a few cards that would make it tricky, namely queens, tens, nines and sevens. The river is one of those places where it comes down to knowing your player. If our opponent will fire two barrels fairly frequently I think we probably have to call down if the river is safe, otherwise I think we can find a fold if he bets big on the turn and follows up on the river.

Edit: As for JT calling, he'll probably call a river bet with that as well if he checks behind, or just bet turn and check behind unimproved on the river. There are a lot of worse hands that wouldn't call a turn bet that may call a river bet though in my opinion.Last edited by Riddim on Wed Feb 07, 2007 12:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

Hmmm.. What I meant was that if the LP raises any bet, he probably hit the straight flush -- not just any flush. Knowing if Gypsy had the Queen of Spades would help because it would change the potential hands LP could have. I concede that $40 is a bit high for a value bet.

I'm learning.... I'm learning...

Probably call and hope you're not up against As9s or something like that. You're getting 11:3 and the river was a scary card which would probably make you fold any hands without a queen or two spades, so I don't really think you can fold here.

I just finished posting the reply to Riddim and I see Gypsy's update.

A jack comes. I certainly don't put LP player on KQ. Unless he had a suited spades, you're golden. And really, with the J spades coming, the only reasonable suited spades are 76spades or 97spades.

I'd value bet 40. if he raises you, you are probably looking at a cooler.

You also didn't say if you had the Queen of Spades.